Buy under $60, sell above with trailing stop (+$0.50 increments)
~83%
Time above $60 since 2008
$70
10-year mean price
$59
Current price (Jan 2026)
3
Major crashes below $60
Historical Price Action & Your Buy Zone
WTI Price
Your Buy Zone (<$60)
$60 Level
10-Year Mean ($70)
Trailing Stop Visualization
Price Action
Trailing Stop
Your Strategy Rules
1Entry: Buy when price drops below $60
2Initial Stop: Set stop-loss (you need to define this - suggest $54-55)
3Above $60: Move stop to breakeven ($60)
4Trail: For every $0.50 above $60, raise stop by $0.50
5Exit: Stopped out on pullback OR take profit at target ($70-75?)
Key Risk: What's your initial stop?
Your strategy doesn't define downside risk before hitting $60. In 2015-16 and 2020, oil went to $26 and $11. Suggestion: Hard stop at $54-55 (near 52-week low of $54.98) limits max loss to ~$5-6/barrel.
Historical "Buy Under $60" Opportunities
Period
Entry Price
Low Reached
Recovery High
Result
Late 2008
$60
$33.87
$80+ (2009)
WIN +33% (if held through drawdown)
Early 2015
$60
$26.21 (Feb 2016)
$75 (2018)
PAIN then WIN (56% drawdown first)
Late 2015
$45
$26.21
$75 (2018)
WIN +67%
Mar 2020
$60
$11 (Apr 2020)
$107 (2022)
PAIN then WIN (82% drawdown first)
Apr 2020
$20
$11
$107 (2022)
WIN +435%
Now (Jan 2026)
$59
?
?
TBD
Key insight: Buying at $60 eventually won every time, but required surviving 50-80% drawdowns in 2015-16 and 2020. Your trailing stop approach avoids giving back gains but you need a defined initial stop to avoid catastrophic loss.
Verdict: Is Your Strategy Reasonable?
YES
Historical edge exists
NEEDS
Defined initial stop-loss
$54-55
Suggested initial stop
$70
Mean reversion target
Recommended Trade Setup
Using /MCL (Micro WTI) on Tastytrade:
Entry: Current price ~$59-60
Initial Stop: $54.50 (risk: ~$550 per /MCL contract)
Breakeven Stop: Move to $60 once price hits $60.50