Research

Independent backtests and quantitative analysis of trading services and market hypotheses.

Backtest Aug 2026

Jay Wave Bitcoin Scorecard: 271 Videos Audited

Independent audit of a German-language Bitcoin YouTuber. 1,347 price calls extracted from auto-generated transcripts and scored against Binance BTCUSDT, with entries taken at the first candle after each video published.

Key finding: Inconclusive by construction, and that is the result. Hand-checking 75 samples against the audio put extraction precision at 34%, too noisy to separate "no skill" from "an edge we cannot resolve". He does commit: 91% of videos carry a falsifiable call.

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Backtest Feb 2026

ShadowTrader Backtest: 951 Ideas Over 19 Years

Independent backtest of Peter Reznicek's weekly video trading ideas. LLM-extracted tickers, directions, and timeframes matched against historical price data with statistical significance testing.

Key finding: 52.5% win rate across 951 ideas, statistically indistinguishable from random (p=0.77). His shorts are proven losers at 40.4% win rate.

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Backtest Feb 2026

Pirate Traders T2 Dip-Buy: Deep Verification

Full backtest of the Pirate Traders Camarilla-derived T2 dip-buy strategy on ES futures. 425 trades over 14 months with walk-forward validation, Monte Carlo simulation, and slippage sensitivity analysis.

Key finding: 47.6% win rate but 2.52 profit factor. Positive edge confirmed (p=0.0000). 96.8% of walk-forward windows profitable.

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Strategy Feb 2026

WTI Crude Oil: Strategy Analysis

Quantitative analysis of a mean-reversion crude oil strategy using /MCL micro futures. Tests entry near 52-week lows against historical seasonal patterns and price behavior.

Key finding: Historical edge exists for the setup, but the strategy needs a defined initial stop-loss at $54-55 to manage tail risk.

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